新股高價發行 機構難脫干系

2010年02月11日 02:30
來源：中國證券網－上海證券報

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⊙周麗華

昨日掛牌交易的齊星鐵塔在開盤后也出現了擊穿發行價走勢，多數觀點認為新股發行價過高是近期新股持續破發的誘因。按照目前的新股發行制度，新股往往是通過詢價機制進行定價的，詢價對象主要是基金等機構資金。而機構資金在詢價過程中的出價又與機構研究報告所給出的新股定位存在著一定的關聯，因此，有觀點認為新股發行價過高或與機構報告給出的預測價格有著一定的聯系。

這也得到了2009年12月以來新股申購前機構詢價或估值統計結果的佐證，因為新股最終發行價與機構定位存在著正態分布特征。不難看出，去年12月份以來發行的87只新股中，發行價與機構平均定位之間差異在5%之內的個股達到27家，占31%，差異在10%以內的個股則為46家，占比為53%，只有3只新股發行價較平均定價差距在20%以上。如此數據一方面說明了機構定位較高程度“左右”了最終發行價格的設定，另一方面也表明了機構定位與新股高發行市盈率、高發行價之間存在著極大關聯。

現在的問題是，為什么一向崇尚價值投資理念的機構研究報告會給予新股如此高的發行市盈率呢？比如金龍機電、世紀鼎利的發行市盈率均超過了100倍。而多年來的A股市場走勢顯示，大盤平均市盈率一旦超過60倍，就是高寒區域了，所以機構的新股定位報告近期受到了市場質疑。對此，有兩個因素或可予以考慮：一是市場平均市盈率雖然60倍已是高寒區域了，但對于小盤股來說，A股市場歷來賦予較高市盈率，而且部分小盤新股或者具有相對獨特的資質。二是目前新股的市場化發行意味著新股定位可以直接參照二級市場，也就是說，是目前整個A股市場的高估值抬升了新股發行價。

但不管怎樣，未來新股發行價格有望出現一定程度的回落。一方面是因為新股的持續破發會下移新股發行價格，會影響著機構報告的心理價格預期。另一方面則是因為前期A股市場的回落使得新股發行價格的參照品種的估值重心也有所下移，所以未來新股發行價格或將更趨于理性。

2009年12月以來新股申購前機構詢價或估值情況一覽(制表：上海聚源數據)

股票股票機構定價平均定價機構定價平均定價機構平均最終發行較平均定發行股票股票機構定價平均定價機構定價平均定價機構平均最終發行較平均定發行

代碼名稱最低(元)下限(元)最高(元)上限(元)定價(元)價(元)價(%)市盈率代碼名稱最低(元)下限(元)最高(元)上限(元)定價(元)價(元)價(%)市盈率

002326永太科技16.2524.4639.2027.5325.9920.00-23.0664.52601299中國北車5.005.738.346.606.175.56-9.8749.21

002362漢王科技34.3652.3165.0056.0454.1741.90-22.6668.69002344海寧皮城15.3720.7931.3523.5222.1520.00-9.7369.33

002325洪濤股份20.2532.5051.5936.7234.6127.00-21.9965.85002332仙琚制藥5.508.4814.599.679.078.20-9.6345.56

300036超圖軟件16.4222.7442.4125.9324.3419.60-19.4681.67300051三五互聯28.2034.8345.0040.4037.6234.00-9.6265.38

601139深圳燃氣6.258.0714.009.148.616.95-19.2549.64300034鋼研高納13.2020.2235.0022.9821.6019.53-9.5875.12

002330得利斯9.6015.1523.1117.3716.2613.18-18.9350.69300038梅泰諾17.8127.4743.0029.6728.5726.00-8.9861.90

002361神劍股份13.8019.9837.2021.6920.8317.00-18.4136.17002324普利特15.4023.0642.7526.3824.7222.50-8.9786.54

300031寶通帶業28.0043.4875.0049.5246.5038.00-18.2862.30601117中國化學4.385.6511.646.215.935.43-8.3745.25

002350北京科銳22.2027.5538.0030.6529.1024.00-17.5245.28300045華力創通23.0431.2348.0035.6433.4430.70-8.1876.75

002340格林美23.0036.3350.0040.9438.6332.00-17.1778.05002346柘中建設14.7820.0229.8522.7521.3919.90-6.9558.19.

002338奧普光電16.1924.4740.0028.5626.5122.00-17.0250.00002359齊星鐵塔12.5017.1124.1519.0818.1016.98-6.1754.77

300050世紀鼎利77.5796.96167.00114.74105.8588.00-16.86123.94002358森源電氣20.5025.8938.1529.5027.7026.00-6.1254.17

002342巨力索具20.0027.3236.0030.3628.8424.00-16.7855.81002349精華制藥15.5719.7728.0822.3121.0419.80-5.9073.33

300052中青寶22.8034.5445.0037.4335.9830.00-16.6393.75002345潮宏基26.0032.6347.8737.4935.0633.00-5.8879.17

002335科華恒盛25.0030.6646.6934.6832.6727.35-16.2852.60300046臺基股份29.7040.7166.0046臺6343.6741.30-5.4266.61

300029天龍光電13.1720.0332.0023.4021.7218.18-16.2862.69300049福瑞股份18.5028.4748.2032.7930.6328.98-5.3882.80

002318久立特材18.0025.9134.6528.9627.4323.00-16.1546.00002337賽象科技25.0830.1443.0035.1232.6331.00-4.9951.67

002343禾欣股份21.0034.0856.0039.6836.8831.00-15.9470.45002354科冕木業9.7012.0319.3513.9212.9812.33-4.9856.05

300042朗科科技19.8441.6282.8050.4646.0439.00-15.2976.47002336人人樂20.0026.4646.3029.9828.2226.98-4.4049.050.

002347泰爾重工17.0024.8939.0028.1826.5422.50-15.2244.12002360同德化工19.7823.9929.1026.1625.0723.98-4.3632.85

300035中科電氣28.8438.9960.0045.7642.3736.00-15.0459.02300043星輝車模23.0043星1570.0048.7345.9443.98-4.2691.49

002321華英農業12.3018.8227.4020.9519.8816.98-14.5958.55300044賽為智能15.9021.4837.0024.3522.9122.00-3.9981.4837.

002329皇氏乳業14.8021.8536.6025.1323.4920.10-14.4367.00300058藍色光標22.0033.0145.0037.3235.1633.86-3.7167.72

300041回天膠業26.6039.5265.0045.4842.5036.40-14.3567.41300057萬順股份13.6517.7724.3020.2619.0118.38-3.3265.64

300032金龍機電9.5020.3034.3124.0222.1619.00-14.25126.67002341新綸科技16.5022.0733.0025.4823.7723.00-3.2563.36

002328新朋股份17.0520.5931.0024.5222.5619.38-14.0851.00300055萬邦達51.2563.0990.0072.6667.8765.69-3.2271.40

002339積成電子20.0027.4935.0330.0228.7625.00-13.0760.98601268二重重裝5.908.0411.909.528.788.50-3.2240.48

002319樂通股份9.5014.9925.0016.4915.7413.70-12.9548.75300037新宙邦17.2527.6050.0031.9029.7528.99-2.56111.5014.

002331皖通科技22.2328.8446.0033.0430.9427.00-12.7358.52601801皖新傳媒9.2011.3718.0012.7912.0811.80-2.2842.56

002351漫步者28.5636.3246.7540.2938.3033.50-12.5476.14002355興民鋼圈10.2013.7321.6015.7414.7314.50-125958.002351漫步

002334英威騰41.0052.0568.0057.5954.8248.00-12.4478.69002356浩寧達26.7335.5655.0038.5537.0636.50-1.5063.81

002317眾生藥業43.4059.7393.0065.6162.6755.00-12.2463.44300048合康變頻23.2332.3850.0036.4534.4234.16-0.75106.95

601179中國西電6.408.2913.309.648.977.90-11.8934.17300054鼎龍股份22.1028.9637.9632.5030.7330.55-0.5989.85

601106中國一重4.505.939.806.906.415.70-11.1241.22780688華泰申購15.3020.4826.7023.7622.1222.00-0.5332.35

002357富臨運業13.4015.8622.0017.8316.8414.97-11.1242.29002323中聯電氣19.0027.9239.0631.6629.7930.000.7143.622.

300040九洲電氣20.8034.7855.6039.3637.0733.00-10.9768.75300056三維絲14.4019.4926.8023.1421.3221.591.29102.81

002320海峽股份20.1836.0253.0039.2137.6133.60-10.6747.32002352鼎泰新材17.5029.5241.6033.4031.4632.001.7165.88

002322理工監測29.0542.0872.7747.4144.7540.00-10.6159.85300039上海凱寶22.2535.5557.0239.0137.2838.001.9482.6159.

002333羅普斯金17.8023.2434.4925.9524.5922.00-10.5462.80300030陽普醫療16.002334240.0025.2524.3325.002373108.70

002353杰瑞股份43.0763.3697.9269.5866.4759.50-10.4981.78300053歐比特12.0015.4922.2817.5616.5217.00238873.873.

300033同花順40.2856.4185.0061.5558.9852.80-10.4892.57601877正泰電器16.2521.8934.0024.6923.2923.982.9761.49

780678濱化申購13.8019.9625.7622.4221.1919.00-10.3438.00300047天源迪科20.7026.7745.003009928.8830.00308678.95

002327富安娜23.0031.3447.0035.2933.3130.00-9.9446.88601989中國重工4.146.5010.007.617.057.384.6242.146.

002348高樂股份16.0022.9832.9025.8224.4021.98-9.9370.90

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