金價跌到何時見買點 專家：2014年一季度

2013年國際金價跌28%，鎖定1981年來最大年度跌幅，并為長達12年的牛市行情畫上句號；投資者及消費者現正在推敲逢低進場的良好時機。

香港英文報紙《南華早報》報道，專家建議下一季是買進時機，因部分分析師預期金價稍晚將復蘇。

今年第四季金價多數時間徘徊每盎司1300美元價位，但價格已由第一季平均的1632美元大跌至第三季的1326美元。不過專家預料，金價將在明年稍晚重拾漲勢，但價格在第一季仍有進一步下跌空間。

德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)分析師預估，明年平均金價將由今年的每盎司1413美元降至1300美元，但至年終會上漲收在1400美元。美國銀行美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)則預估明年平均金價僅1294美元，但年終會收在1350美元。

瑞銀(UBS)及渣打(Standard Chartered)悲觀預估，明年平均金價將僅每盎司1200美元。而盡管澳盛銀行(ANZ)估計，明年第一季平均金價再跌至每盎司1150美元，但年終會強勁反彈收在1450美元。

瑞銀財富管理(UBS Wealth Management)大宗商品研究部主任Dominic Schnider發布客戶報告寫到，他預料近期金價會跌更深。因為即便金價已處于目前低點，明年金市仍消化不了黃金ETF (指數型基金)、期貨及選擇權相關投資工具拋售的300-500公噸新供應黃金，相當于全年金市需求的7%-11%。“除非金價跌至1050-1150美元的邊際現金生產成本，才能令供需平衡”。

不過從德國商業銀行到澳盛銀行皆預期，金價將在明年稍晚反彈，理由卻是黃金ETF 的拋售速度預料將減緩，因美聯儲將提供更多的貨幣政策前瞻指引，加上亞洲的黃金需求強勁。

德國商銀估計，明年中國黃金需求量將大致符合今年的1000公噸，取代印度成為全球最大黃金消費國。但今年第三季金價較去年同期大跌23%的印度，明年金市需求也預料將復蘇。

原文

Early 2014 the best time to buy gold

Doubts grow over the precious metal’s allure as a medium-term investment as prices head for

their biggest decline since 1981

Investors and consumers looking to take advantage of lower gold prices are advised to buy next

quarter, with some analysts tipping prices to recover later, although they are set to post this

year the biggest loss since 1981.

But some doubt the attractiveness of gold as a medium-term investment, saying its function as a

hedge against inflation is likely to wane as interest rates increase after the US Federal

Reserve starts its gradual withdrawal of ultra-stimulative monetary policies that resulted in

near-zero interest rates.

Low interest rates encouraged gold buying as negative real interest rates – gross interest

rates minus inflation – saw investors trim bank deposits and seek alternative investments to

hedge wealth erosion by inflation.

This year, the price of gold was on track to record its first decline in 13 years on an annual

average basis, said a research report by Germany’s Commerzbank.

It has fallen about 27 per cent this year as investors, mostly Western ones, redeemed

exchange-traded funds backed by more than 800 tonnes of gold in anticipation of the Fed’s

tapering of quantitative easing. The extra supply was absorbed primarily by Asians buying

jewellery and investing in bars and coins, attracted by the lower prices.

Hong Kong is a key conduit for the import of gold into the mainland, and a sharp fall in gold

price in the second quarter saw a buying frenzy by mainland tourists at Hong Kong’s gold

shops, which helped support a brief rebound.

Gold also lost its lustre this year as stock markets in developed nations soared to record

levels amid low interest rates while inflation remained tame despite fears over ultra-low

rates.

Prices dropped briefly below US$1,200 an ounce after the Fed announced on December 18 that it

would cut its monthly bond purchases by US$10 billion to US$75 billion from January as the

economy in the United States improved.

Commerzbank analysts forecast the price of gold would average US$1,300 next year, while those

at Australia’s ANZ tipped US$1,269 and Bank of America Merrill Lynch US$1,294. UBS and

Standard Chartered’s calls are a less optimistic US$1,200. The year-to-date average is US

$1,413.

Gold price hovered below US$1,300 for most of the fourth quarter after falling to US$1,326 in

the third from US$1,632 in the first.

Some expect it to recover some ground later next year, although room for more downside is seen

in the first quarter.

Commerzbank analysts expected the price to rise to US$1,400 by the end of next year, while Bank

of America Merrill Lynch tipped US$1,350. ANZ forecast a rebound to US$1,450 after dipping to

US$1,150 in the first quarter.

Dominic Schnider, head of commodity research at UBS Wealth Management, sees more downside near

term. He said it would be difficult to absorb 300 to 500 tonnes of new supply – 7 to 11 per

cent of annual demand – from gold sales related to exchange-traded funds, futures and options

next year, even at current low prices.

“Only a fall in the price of gold to marginal cash production costs of US$1,050 to US$1,150

would balance supply and demand,” he wrote in a note.

Expectations of a recovery in prices later next year by Commerzbank and ANZ are based on the

assumption that the redemption of exchange-traded funds will ease as the Fed gives more

guidance on its policies, coupled with resilient Asian demand.

Commerzbank tipped the mainland’s gold demand next year would roughly match this year’s 1,000

tonnes, with the country overtaking India as the world’s largest consumer due to high income

and few investment alternatives.

It also expected consumer demand to recover in India next year after a 23 per cent year-on-year

decline in the third quarter of this year following three duty increases to curb imports and

rein in the country’s large trade deficit.

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