美國聯邦公開市場委員會12月16日會議聲明全文(中英)

以下是美聯儲周三在華盛頓發布的政策聲明全文：

自聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC) 10月份會議以來收到的信息顯示，經濟活動在以溫和步伐擴張。居民開支和商業固定投資最近幾個月在以穩固速度增長，住宅領域進一步好轉；然而，凈出口一直疲軟。近期一系列勞動力市場指標，包括就業持續增長和失業率下降，顯示出進一步的改善，確認了勞動力資源利用不足的情況自年初以來顯著消減。通脹繼續低于委員會2%的長期目標，在部分程度上反映了能源價格以及非能源進口產品價格的下跌。基于市場的通脹補償指標保持低位；一些基于調查的長期通脹預期指標輕微下降。

為履行其法定職責，委員會尋求促進充分就業并保持物價穩定。委員會目前預計，隨著貨幣政策立場漸進調整，經濟活動將繼續以溫和步伐擴張， 勞動力市場指標會繼續走強。總體而言，將國內和國際局勢發展納入考量之后，委員會認為，經濟活動以及勞動力市場展望面臨的風險均衡。隨著能源與進口產品價格下跌的臨時影響消退，以及勞動力市場進一步好轉， 通脹預計將在中期內升至2%。委員會將繼續密切監測通脹動態。

委員會認為，勞動力市場形勢今年已經顯著改善，并有合理信心認為通脹將在中期內升至2%的目標。鑒于經濟展望，以及認識到政策行動影響到未來經濟表現所需要的時間，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率目標區間上調至0.25%-0.5%。貨幣政策立場在此次加息之后將繼續保持寬松，因此支持勞動力市場形勢進一步好轉以及通脹回歸2%。

在確定聯邦基金利率目標區間未來調整的時機和幅度方面，委員會將評估已實現的經濟形勢和預期的經濟形勢朝其充分就業以及2%通脹目標發展的情況。這方面的評估將考慮廣泛的一系列信息，包括衡量勞動力市場狀況的指標、通脹壓力與通脹預期指標以及金融和國際動態方面的數據。鑒于當前通脹低于2%，委員會將密切關注向通脹目標的實際和預期進展。委員會預計，經濟形勢演變將使其有理由僅以漸進方式上調聯邦基金利率；聯邦基金利率可能在一段時間內繼續低于預期中的長期水平。不過，聯邦基金利率的實際路徑將取決于未來數據所顯示出的經濟前景。

委員會維持這一現有政策：將所持機構債券與機構抵押貸款支持證券的到期本金再投資到機構抵押貸款支持證券，并在標售時將到期國債展期，直至聯邦基金利率的正常化進程已經進行了相當長一段時間。這一政策通過將委員會所持長期證券維持在可觀水平，應該會有助于保持寬松的金融狀況。

投票支持聯邦公開市場委員會本次貨幣政策行動的成員為：主席珍妮特· 耶倫、副主席威廉姆·杜德利、Lael Brainard、Charles L.

Evans、Stanley Fischer、Jeffrey M. Lacker、Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams。

原文

Release Date: December 16, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have edged down.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. Overall, taking into account domestic and international developments, the Committee sees the risks to the outlook for both economic activity and the labor market as balanced. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

Implementation Note issued December 16, 2015

2015 Monetary Policy Releases