美國(guó)聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)12月16日會(huì)議聲明全文(中英)

以下是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周三在華盛頓發(fā)布的政策聲明全文：

自聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)(FOMC) 10月份會(huì)議以來(lái)收到的信息顯示，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)在以溫和步伐擴(kuò)張。居民開支和商業(yè)固定投資最近幾個(gè)月在以穩(wěn)固速度增長(zhǎng)，住宅領(lǐng)域進(jìn)一步好轉(zhuǎn)；然而，凈出口一直疲軟。近期一系列勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)指標(biāo)，包括就業(yè)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)和失業(yè)率下降，顯示出進(jìn)一步的改善，確認(rèn)了勞動(dòng)力資源利用不足的情況自年初以來(lái)顯著消減。通脹繼續(xù)低于委員會(huì)2%的長(zhǎng)期目標(biāo)，在部分程度上反映了能源價(jià)格以及非能源進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的下跌。基于市場(chǎng)的通脹補(bǔ)償指標(biāo)保持低位；一些基于調(diào)查的長(zhǎng)期通脹預(yù)期指標(biāo)輕微下降。

為履行其法定職責(zé)，委員會(huì)尋求促進(jìn)充分就業(yè)并保持物價(jià)穩(wěn)定。委員會(huì)目前預(yù)計(jì)，隨著貨幣政策立場(chǎng)漸進(jìn)調(diào)整，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)將繼續(xù)以溫和步伐擴(kuò)張， 勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)指標(biāo)會(huì)繼續(xù)走強(qiáng)。總體而言，將國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際局勢(shì)發(fā)展納入考量之后，委員會(huì)認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)以及勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)展望面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)均衡。隨著能源與進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品價(jià)格下跌的臨時(shí)影響消退，以及勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步好轉(zhuǎn)， 通脹預(yù)計(jì)將在中期內(nèi)升至2%。委員會(huì)將繼續(xù)密切監(jiān)測(cè)通脹動(dòng)態(tài)。

委員會(huì)認(rèn)為，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)今年已經(jīng)顯著改善，并有合理信心認(rèn)為通脹將在中期內(nèi)升至2%的目標(biāo)。鑒于經(jīng)濟(jì)展望，以及認(rèn)識(shí)到政策行動(dòng)影響到未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)所需要的時(shí)間，委員會(huì)決定將聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間上調(diào)至0.25%-0.5%。貨幣政策立場(chǎng)在此次加息之后將繼續(xù)保持寬松，因此支持勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)進(jìn)一步好轉(zhuǎn)以及通脹回歸2%。

在確定聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間未來(lái)調(diào)整的時(shí)機(jī)和幅度方面，委員會(huì)將評(píng)估已實(shí)現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)和預(yù)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)朝其充分就業(yè)以及2%通脹目標(biāo)發(fā)展的情況。這方面的評(píng)估將考慮廣泛的一系列信息，包括衡量勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)狀況的指標(biāo)、通脹壓力與通脹預(yù)期指標(biāo)以及金融和國(guó)際動(dòng)態(tài)方面的數(shù)據(jù)。鑒于當(dāng)前通脹低于2%，委員會(huì)將密切關(guān)注向通脹目標(biāo)的實(shí)際和預(yù)期進(jìn)展。委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)，經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)演變將使其有理由僅以漸進(jìn)方式上調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率；聯(lián)邦基金利率可能在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)繼續(xù)低于預(yù)期中的長(zhǎng)期水平。不過(guò)，聯(lián)邦基金利率的實(shí)際路徑將取決于未來(lái)數(shù)據(jù)所顯示出的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景。

委員會(huì)維持這一現(xiàn)有政策：將所持機(jī)構(gòu)債券與機(jī)構(gòu)抵押貸款支持證券的到期本金再投資到機(jī)構(gòu)抵押貸款支持證券，并在標(biāo)售時(shí)將到期國(guó)債展期，直至聯(lián)邦基金利率的正常化進(jìn)程已經(jīng)進(jìn)行了相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間。這一政策通過(guò)將委員會(huì)所持長(zhǎng)期證券維持在可觀水平，應(yīng)該會(huì)有助于保持寬松的金融狀況。

投票支持聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)本次貨幣政策行動(dòng)的成員為：主席珍妮特· 耶倫、副主席威廉姆·杜德利、Lael Brainard、Charles L.

Evans、Stanley Fischer、Jeffrey M. Lacker、Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams。

原文

Release Date: December 16, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have edged down.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. Overall, taking into account domestic and international developments, the Committee sees the risks to the outlook for both economic activity and the labor market as balanced. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

Implementation Note issued December 16, 2015

2015 Monetary Policy Releases