2011年03月14日 10:29
來源：鳳凰網財經

字號:T|T

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野村證券

A 9.0-magnitude earthquake occurred off the northeastern coast of Japan on 11 March(Friday). The earthquake, with its epicenter in the Tohoku-Sanriku area, was the largestever recorded in Japan. The size of the economy of the main earthquake-affected regionis roughly the same as that of the area hit by the Great Hanshin (Kobe) earthquake in1995, but with this Tohoku Pacific (Sendai) earthquake affecting road networks, powerplants and other infrastructure over a wide area, we expect the short-term economicimpact to be greater than the Kobe earthquake. The area affected by the Sendaiearthquake has a large number of IT-related companies. Due to the earthquake andtsunami, the Japanese economy is now likely to take longer than we expected to exit itscurrent lull. We had projected an Apr–Jun exit but now forecast Jul–Sep or possibly Oct–Dec. We forecast that the largest negative impact on quarterly real GDP growth willemerge in Apr–Jun 2011. We think a slump in the domestic economy caused by theearthquake is an overly pessimistic outlook. However, based on the experience of theKobe earthquake, we think a V-shaped recovery supported by a rapid upturn in demanddriven by government-funded rebuilding work in the affected areas is also unlikely. Webelieve the earthquake has increased the likelihood of additional monetary easingmeasures by the BOJ, and we expect these measures to be implemented in conjunctionwith the announcement of new government stimulus measures.

Kobe earthquake an effective reference point: With information on damage stilllimited, estimating the impact of the earthquake and tsunami on Japan’s economy andfinancial markets is problematic. However, we think the Kobe earthquake of January1995 provides a good reference point. We believe recent major earthquakes in Japan,rather than overseas, provide a better benchmark for assessing the economic impact ofthe disaster, as characteristics specific to Japan are likely to have a large say in howlong consumers and companies refrain from normal activity or what kind of stimulusmeasures the government decides to implement. In the case of the Kobe earthquake,the short-term impact on the domestic economy was smaller than anticipated buteconomic expansion driven by rebuilding demand took longer to feed through thanexpected. As with the Kobe earthquake, operating rates at manufacturing facilities havebeen relatively low, making it comparatively easy for companies to shift production tosites unaffected by the disaster. However, given the extensive damage to road networks,power plants and other infrastructure over a wide area, we think the short-termeconomic impact of the Sendai earthquake will be greater.

Earthquake likely to delay Japan’s exit from current economic lull: Based on whatoccurred after the Kobe earthquake, we think an all-out slump in the Japanese economycaused by the Sendai earthquake is overly pessimistic. However, a V-shaped recoverysupported by a rapid upturn in demand driven by rebuilding work in the affected areas isalso unlikely. We now expect the Japanese economy to take longer than we expectedto exit its current soft patch owing to the earthquake and tsunami. The consensusforecast on the timing for this exit was Jan–Mar 2011, while we had projected Apr–Jun.However, we now think Jul–Sep or possibly Oct–Dec is more likely. We expect solideconomic recovery to be confirmed in Oct–Dec.

Government stimulus measures: The government announced supplementarybudgets after the Kobe earthquake that provided a total of ?3trn in spending to help withrebuilding. We expect government stimulus measures for the Sendai earthquake toexceed this level. However, it took the government around 40 days from the date of the Kobe earthquake to announce its first supplementary budget. The MINIstry of Finance has indicated that itwill tap special reserves of ?203.8bn remaining in the FY10 budget to fund rebuilding measures in the nearterm. For the longer term, it expects to use funds from a FY11 supplementary budget, rather than FY10supplementary budget. We think rebuilding demand will probably take some time to emerge.

Additional monetary easing measures by the BOJ: We think the earthquake has increased the likelihoodthat the BOJ will implement additional monetary easing measures. Specifically, we expect the bank toincrease the scale of its asset purchase facility from around ?5trn at present to ?8–10trn, and this is unlikelyto cause a surprise in financial markets. A coordinated move with the government is also likely, with the BOJannouncing its move when the government releases details of its stimulus measures. The bank couldimplement measures sooner if financial markets see a strengthening trend of yen appreciation/share priceweakness on 14 March.