美聯儲12月貨幣政策聲明：每月縮減100億美元QE

鳳凰黃金訊 在結束了為期兩天的貨幣政策會議后，美聯儲于北京時間周四(12月19日)宣布，維持聯邦基金利率區間在0.0%-0.25%不變，每月削減100億美元QE。美聯儲將在明年1月開始縮減購債，每月將購買400億美元美國國債，每月將購買350億美元抵押貸款支持證券。

美聯儲公開市場委員會(FOMC)在會后發布的正式聲明中稱，如果經濟保持既定方向，則將在未來政策會議上繼續謹慎縮減購債。這表明美聯儲在退出經濟刺激計劃的道路上邁出了第一步。

美聯儲重申會維持接近零的低利率政策，只要失業率高于6.5%且通脹率低于2.5%。

美聯儲在正式政策聲明中表示，鑒于勞動力市場朝著就業最大化目標不斷靠近，且就業前景出現改善，美聯儲政策委員會決定適度降低其資產購買計劃的規模。

美聯儲還試圖強調其在購債結束后將短期利率長期維持在低位的承諾。美聯儲官員在政策聲明加入了新的說法，稱只要通脹水平不是過高，那么就算失業率降至6.5%的門檻該行也不會急于加息。美聯儲此前曾將6.5%的失業率設定為開始考慮加息的政策門檻。

美聯儲稱，失業率降至6.5%門檻下方后將聯邦基金利率長期維持在當前水平的做法可能是適宜的，尤其是預期通脹水平繼續低于2%的長期通脹目標的情況下，這一做法更是合適。

短期利率自2008年年末以來一直維持在零水平附近。大多數美聯儲官員預計，今後相當長一段時間利率將維持低位。美聯儲周三發布的最新經濟預期顯示，17位官員中，有12位預計到2015年年底聯邦基金利率將維持在1%或更低水平，有10位預計到2016年年底聯邦基金利率在將維持在2%或更低水平。

美聯儲承認對通脹持續低于2%目標感到擔憂，表示正仔細監測通脹走勢，尋找中期內通脹水平重回目標的證據。據美國商務部本月早些時候發布的數據顯示，10月份個人消費支出價格指數(PCE)同比僅上升0.7%。這一指數是美聯儲所青睞的通脹指標。

美聯儲官員對2014年的經濟預期基本保持不變，只是在9月份給出的經濟增長、失業率和通脹率預期基礎上稍作調整。聲明稱，經濟和就業市場面臨的風險已經更加趨于平衡。

美聯儲政策委員會具投票權的委員中，9位委員支持縮減購債。波士頓聯邦儲備銀行行長Eric Rosengren反對這一決定，他認為眼下失業率仍處于高位且通脹率仍低于2%政策目標，此時縮減購債時機并不成熟；需要等到數據更清晰地表明經濟增速可能持續高于其潛在增速時，才應開始縮減購債。

市場影響

在美聯儲縮減QE規模之后，美元指數一度快速跳漲至80.30上方，但此后，在美聯儲對經濟前景的預估仍然不盡如人意的背景下，美元指數又一度下行至79.89的低位。市場的震蕩行情顯示投資者對前景仍然感到迷茫，因而此后，美聯儲主席伯南克所做的新聞發布會講話將成為左右匯市進一步走勢的又一焦點事件。

近期美國發布了強于預期的經濟數據。少數經濟學家認為此次會議就將有所動作，但更多人預計縮減將在2014年的頭幾個月發生。

自2008年11月以來，美聯儲已經宣布了6個版本的購債計劃。對于維持超低利率的措辭也變了6個版本。過去四年里，美聯儲兩度結束QE，希望經濟可以企穩，但最終只能再度啟動新一輪購債。

美聯儲目前每月購買850億美元債券，以此向美國經濟注入流動性。

新聞稿(原版)

Release Date: December 18, 2013

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint may be diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in January, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee now anticipates, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Eric S. Rosengren, who believes that, with the unemployment rate still elevated and the inflation rate well below the target, changes in the purchase program are premature until incoming data more clearly indicate that economic growth is likely to be sustained above its potential rate.

Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

2013 Monetary Policy Releases