分析師：美聯儲加了一句話 暗示2016年前都不會加息

新聞配圖

彭博策略師Christopher Maloney撰寫報告稱，鴿派FOMC聲明指出房地產市場“進一步改善”，并且對“全球經濟和金融形勢”表達了擔憂；上述觀察是他自己的觀點。加入有關全球形勢的表述暗示美聯儲最早在2016年前都不會加息。

以下是美聯儲聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)周三在華盛頓發布的政策聲明全文：

自聯邦公開市場委員會7月份會議以來收到的信息顯示，經濟活動在以溫和步伐擴張。居民開支和商業固定投資一直在溫和增長，住宅領域進一步好轉；然而，凈出口一直疲軟。勞動力市場繼續好轉，就業增長穩固且失業率下降。整體而言，勞動力市場指標顯示勞動力資源利用不足的情況自年初以來消減。通脹繼續低于委員會的長期目標，在部分程度上反映了能源價格以及非能源進口產品價格的下跌。基于市場的通脹補償指標下跌； 基于調查的長期通脹預期指標保持穩定。

為履行其法定職責，委員會尋求促進充分就業并保持物價穩定。最近全球經濟和金融動態可能會對經濟活動略有抑制，而且很可能會對近期通脹構成進一步下行壓力。盡管如此，委員會預計，在適度的政策寬松之下，經濟活動將以溫和步伐擴張，其中勞動力市場指標會繼續向委員會認為與其雙重職責相一致的水平發展。委員會繼續認為，經濟活動以及勞動力市場展望方面的風險接近平衡，但正在監測海外動態。雖然預計通脹近期內將維持在最近的低水平附近，但委員會預計，隨著勞動力市場進一步好轉以及能源與進口產品價格下跌的臨時影響消退，通脹在中期內會逐步升向2%。委員會將繼續密切監測通脹動態。

為支持形勢持續向充分就業以及物價穩定的目標發展，委員會周三確認以下看法：目前0-0.25%的聯邦基金利率目標區間依然合適。在確定要將這一目標區間維持多長時間方面，委員會將評估形勢朝其充分就業以及2%通脹目標發展的情況——包括已實現情況和預期情況。這方面的評估將考慮廣泛的一系列信息，包括衡量勞動力市場狀況的指標、通脹壓力與通脹預期指標以及金融和國際動態方面的數據。委員會認為，在看到勞動力市場有些進一步好轉且對通脹在中期將升向其2%目標方面抱有合理信心時，上調聯邦基金利率目標區間將是合適之舉。

委員會維持這一現有政策：將所持機構債券與機構抵押貸款支持證券的到期本金再投資到機構抵押貸款支持證券，并在標售時將到期國債展期。這一政策通過將委員會所持長期證券維持在可觀水平，應該會有助于保持寬松的金融狀況。

在決定要開始取消寬松政策時，委員會將采取平衡而且與其充分就業以及2%的通脹率這些長期目標相一致的方式。委員會目前預計，即使在就業和通脹接近與其法定職責相一致水平的情況下，經濟狀況在一段時間內可能有理由讓委員會將聯邦基金目標利率維持在其認為長期正常的水平之下。

投票支持聯邦公開市場委員會本次貨幣政策行動的成員為：主席珍妮特· 耶倫、副主席威廉姆·杜德利、Lael Brainard、Charles L.

Evans、Stanley Fischer、Dennis P. Lockhart、Jerome H.

Powell、Daniel K. Tarullo以及John C. Williams。Jeffrey M. Lacker 投票反對此次行動，他支持在本次會議上將聯邦基金利率目標區間上調25個基點。

原文

Release Date: September 17, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, labor market indicators show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this meeting.